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Interesting paper, but they did not address the role of the Federal Farm Loan System, created in 1916, which was designed to lend to small farmers. Also, they did not address the WFC, charged with supporting US exports after ww1. WFC impact may have been minimal, but expectations of export subsidies of agricultural products would increase the present value of land & support more credit.

The situation seems rather akin to mortgage support by Fan and Fred.

I also don't think their policy recommendation follows since now banks are much more geographically diversified.

This sort of mechanism can be found in Hayek's causal model:

"Credit availability may have also amplified the relationship between the perceived improvement infundamentals and land prices. "

Is there anything which is not found in Hayek's works??

John, I know only a fraction of Hayek that Greg knows, but so far I have found very few major discoveries in economics since WWII that Hayek and Mises did not anticipate.

For example, Cowen once claimed on his blog that a particular paper on unemployment was the most important paper published in several decades. I can't remember the paper. But after reading it, I realized it was not much more than Hayek's Ricardo Effect put to math.


Have you looked at any of Alan Taylor's recent work on credit booms gone bust?

Read your article, thanks for sharing. By yzi112
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