Are Recessions Healthy?

David L. Prychitko

In the September 28 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science University of Michigan researchers found a negative correlation between recessions and mortality rates:

Population health did not decline and indeed generally improved during
the 4 years of the Great Depression, 1930–1933, with mortality
decreasing for almost all ages, and life expectancy increasing by
several years in males, females, whites, and nonwhites. For most
age groups, mortality tended to peak during years of strong
economic expansion (such as 1923, 1926, 1929, and 1936–1937). In
contrast, the recessions of 1921, 1930–1933, and 1938 coincided
with declines in mortality and gains in life expectancy. The only
exception was suicide mortality which increased during the Great
Depression, but accounted for less than 2% of deaths. Correlation
and regression analyses confirmed a significant negative effect of
economic expansions on health gains. The evolution of population
health during the years 1920–1940 confirms the counterintuitive
hypothesis that, as in other historical periods and market economies,
population health.

Do recessions -- as economic corrections -- also contribute to health corrections?  Of course, what we have here are correlations that cannot establish cause and effect.  Granados and Roux suggest that recessions cause a slowing down of business, a reduction of workplace stress (which more than compensates for the stress of unemployment), a tendency to care more for sickly home-bound family members and so on that all contribute to improved health. 

That's their hypothesis.  I tend to side with the claim that there are significant lags and that the health problems emerge some years later, as the Granados-Roux model only captures up to three years after a downturn. 

What's your hypothesis?

Comments

[seo services]

As we grow up, we learn that we are loved for our abilities but hated for our disabilities. This happens at home,and at work and etc. Sometimes, this even happens with our doctors, especially if our disabilities mystify them or remind them of their own disabilities specially for our health.

[Justin Ross]

Regression analysis starting in the 1920's? One word: "Automobile"

[Bryan]

My intuition on the meaning of these results was that health is determined by some combination of leisure and consumption. Even though consumption was reduced during the recession, the increased leisure makes up for it.

Higher wages during booms means people substitute away from leisure and subsequently away from health.

[Barkley Rosser]

One should not minimize the increase in the suicide rate, and people killing themselves after getting laid off is a well-known phenomenon. Getting laid off is exceeded in measured unhappiness only by death of a spouse or child and getting arrested and thrown in jail.

The suicide rate as of last reported year (2007) was 11.1 per 100,000 population. In 1920 it was 12.3. In 1932 it was 21.3, a big increase.

In terms of greater life expectancy, another factor may be dietary changes.

[George Selgin]

Obviously things were so bad that people couldn't even afford to die.

[Current]

I think Bryan may be right. People may do more unhealthy things like eating rich food in restaurants and drinking more alcohol.

Here in Ireland the pubs are much emptier than they were, though this doesn't necessarily mean people are drinking less.

[Current]

It would be interesting to know if the same effect occurs in poorer countries.

[Jonathan Finegold Catalán]

Maybe people eat healthier, since they can no longer afford to eat so much junk food (contrary to popular myth, eating healthy is cheaper than eating junk food).

[Knurd]

I'm going to echo some of the sentiment above. As an unemployed man, I've rarely eaten healthier, compared to previous lean times. I make each meal count; buy good food at discount.

And, I'm only suicidal on Mondays...

[Rafe Champion]

The results lack credibility, unless there is a long lag factor. People in the 1930s were not stuffing themselves with junk food before they became unemployed.

As though the benefits of "leisure" by living in poverty without work would improve your health! Try it sometime!

[Knurd]

Rafe -

That's what I'm saying. I am living it, and maybe it's general quality of life that keeps it good: retailers of basic goods (Target, Costco, Wal-Mart), the upsurge of farmer's markets, et al.

Would you think that the cost of a good diet is more or less than the '30's?

Honestly asking...

[Rafael Guthmann]

"What's your hypothesis?"

The Cuban phenomenon explains it: The unemployed at those times had to eat little, hence, he tends to live longer.

Poverty with unchanged technology and medical care tends to increase life expectancy.