Desirable social change in Venezuela is looking more and more improbable. Its authoritarian-Marxist-Guevaraist-former-coup-leader President Hugo Chávez has been very good at increasing his control over the entire country. Indeed, he is acting the way one would expect a dictator to act.
After being elected, he gained control of the main assets in the economy, namely the oil production fields. Controlling the oil is what maintains Chávez in place. He doesn’t have to tax Venezuela's productive people in order to indulge in his socialist policies. The oil gives him all the rents he needs to shower his constituency and more. In case anyone disagrees, he also increased his control over the media. After the oil fields, these are the most crucial assets to spread his message. He has started to control education as well to make sure young minds will support his policies for years. Chávez is now trying to change the constitution in a referendum that would give him more power (see here).
As everyone knows by now, King Juan Carlos of Spain told him to “shut up” at the recent Ibero-American summit in Chile (see here). The King’s interjection has been replayed on YouTube countless times. Many around South America and other parts of the world have seen the King being fed up at Hugo Chávez’s non-sense and disrespect for pretty much everyone. The opposition in the upcoming referendum in Venezuala is now using the King’s interjection (¿Por qué no te callas?) on T-shirts spelling the NO in capital, as a sign for the vote. Companies are already offering ring tones with the King’s voice.
This is a very interesting phenomenon. The King of Spain is a popular and respected person in Latin America. The question is whether this incident will help social change in Venezuela. It’s hard to see how it could have a long-term impact. And yet, it could be a key event that helps Venezuelans resist the growing oppression in their country. If only the King had also told the truth about Chávez’s policies and their impact on the welfare of Venezuelans. Everyday, Venezuela is sinking more into chaos. Perhaps the Internet, T-shirts, ring tones, and a King will help the population wake up to the reality that is awaiting them.
One key element in this incident is its publicity. It generated information that could possible signal higher saliency to an opposition that was previously not known. We see this in the webcast, ringtones, and t-shirts (why was this not done before?). These activities signal messages that are used for reasons of solidarity and to generate common knowledge publicly to possibly solve coordination problems.
However, its effect on Venezuelan's mainly depend on endogeneity and common inference. No one want to run out of the trench and charge the enemy alone; he wants to know that others know, ect. for credible commitment. Solo: stay in the trench; En masse: charge!
Is it Venezuelan's doing the signaling? Is it enough? Is it real?:
I believe it was Pinochet or another S. American dictator who staged a coup in order to have potential rebels stick their heads out of the trench for the killing (or arresting-torturing-and calling out others).
Even though more weight has been shifted to the opposition, effective coordination is their biggest threat.
Posted by: ryan m. daza | November 20, 2007 at 12:47 PM
With the ongoing chaos in Venezuela, what will happen to its oil production? How will it affect the U.S., for instance?
Posted by: Bryan S. | November 20, 2007 at 04:54 PM
As a Venezuelan all I can say is that this King episode give us a reason to laugh, a new slogan to bring to the demonstrations, some publicity... but nothing else. The media doesnt pay much attention to the venezuelan opposition unless they are riots but I can asure you that the population is not sleep. I'm agree with Ryan and the need of coordination. However the troubles the opposition faces are way much deeper and are determinated by the unequal ground on which they are forced to play: with all the institutions kidnapped by the government (such as the court and the electoral centre), the actions ratio its quite limited. No reality is waiting for us, the Venezuelans already deal with the things expressed in the reform, and the reform will make them legal if our effort to stop it ends up being... just not enough.
PS: Excuses for my bad english. This isn't my mother language.
Posted by: Julia_1984 | November 20, 2007 at 05:36 PM
Why don't you shut up CHAVEZ?? we don't want such a baldhead like you in america! so shut the fuckin up man.
Im wearing this t-shirt right now:
http://www.cafepress.com/tshirtmaster/4082237
por que no te callas t-shirts gifts
Posted by: carlos | December 13, 2007 at 09:44 PM
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POR QUE NO TE CALLAS?
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Posted by: panastreetwear | January 05, 2008 at 04:47 AM