February 2021

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« Winning the Battle of Ideas, But Losing the Battle of Practice | Main | Economics and Ideology »

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Pete,
What role do you think the Russian Birth Rate will have on the country in the next 20 years?

I always find Russian Life and Culture to be fascinating, but this massive drop in Birth Rate combined with emigration (i.e. Brain Drain) and HIV/AIDS is making this look like they could go from Bad to Worse.

I think that I am less scared of Putin and more scared of who might follow him.

Depopulation is a serious problem. I think you have to look back to 1960 and then go forward and see the declining life expectancy for both males and females. But as you point out there is something more going on here.

Russia at the moment is just not a place that represents great future opportunity for its citizens.

The 'best' counter view to this pessimistic interpretation is Shleifer's 'Normal Country' thesis. My colleague Pete Leeson is right now finishing up a paper which raises doubts about Shleifer's analysis.

Depopulation is a serious problem. I think you have to look back to 1960 and then go forward and see the declining life expectancy for both males and females. But as you point out there is something more going on here.

Russia at the moment is just not a place that represents great future opportunity for its citizens.

The 'best' counter view to this pessimistic interpretation is Shleifer's 'Normal Country' thesis. My colleague Pete Leeson is right now finishing up a paper which raises doubts about Shleifer's analysis.

Thanks.

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