March 2018

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« Empires with Expiration Dates | Main | The Changing Nature of Economics »


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In a world of infinite alternatives, I have a hard time imagining a sustainably high oil price. In fact, I have a wager with a friend that a gallon of gas will hit $1.00 before it hits $5.00.

I find it amazing how many smart people think that oil is somehow different from every other earthly good that abides by the laws of supply and demand.

I expect that the recent surge in upstream exploration and generation will dramatically impact inventories. Good for consumers, bad for suppliers. Another important note to keep in mind is that general downstream infrastructure has been allowed to corrode through fiscal neglect.

There was a great article in a recent edition of the Economist about the inefficient business practices of state-owned oil companies, which unfortunately, possess most of the known reserve.

I'd be interested in reading the article from The Economist that you mention. Do you have the URL?

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